I flew into Vegas last week to speak before a Veteran's group. To try and get their endorsement in my bid for congress.
While landing it occurred to me just how Pre-Peak our southern city is.
And how Post-Peak it will not be.
Las Vegas is Nevada's unchallenged economic engine.
It is our state's financial heartbeat, and is also the 500 pound canary in the mine.
If you're mining, and the canary falls off its perch, then you'd better get out of the mine. Especially if it's a big canary.
You may think this an alarmist statement, but here are my concerns and reasoning.
Our fairest Metropolis is built in a hot dry desert, with no natural resources other than good sunlight.
It has been for some time the fastest growing city in the country, and also has more home forclosures than most.
It is absolutely dependent on affordable air fares, tourists, and a more than liberal infusion of energy and goods; most of which are produced elsewhere and transported in.
Recently airlines reduced travel to Vegas by about 10%, and a cabbie I met there also concurred that business was down that much.
I have suggested, elsewhere on this webpage, that by end of 08, air travel will be reduced by 30%. A bold statement, but perhaps may bear out.
The price of oil keeps rising. Demand is grindingly overtaking supply, and it will continue for a very long time. Oil will keep rising for many reasons and for many years.
Let me suggest that if, at year's end, traffic to Las Vegas does fall by 30%, then some serious adjustments will have to be made there.
Cost cutting measures will go into force, and we all know that the best way to improve the bottom line is to lay off expendable workers.
Unemployed workers can hardly keep making their mortgage payments, pay their power bills, or contribute to the local economy effectively.
People without good jobs will either take lesser paying jobs, or move elsewhere.
The downward spiral will continue and get even tighter.
Some casino-hotels may close or curtail their operations.
Vegas may eventually start to look like downtown Reno.
Net win will continue to drop, and there will be even less tourists and less attraction.
The casinos will either tighten their slot machines (for more short-term profit) or loosen them to draw more players (improving the decaying gross income, but not building the bottom line.)
As Vegas slowly (or quickly) starts to deflate, the bloom will fall off the rose.
People go there because it is always very busy and very exciting.
What happens when it is not quite so busy and not quite so exciting???
What will happen to that magical media magnet that has for decades compelled people to be 'in the action'?
Without a healthy 'drop', money will be unavailable for improvements, new building, finishing current projects, and even keeping existing infrastructures well serviced.
Quality in all matters will decline.
Investment will flow away as profitability declines.
More people will move out. Less will visit. More will lose their jobs.
The downward spiral will tighten.
I fear for our golden Lady in the South.
It is the outlandish and wonderful arrogance of our fast-car-culture revealed. It is obnoxiously wasteful, but somehow cool.
It is our national craziness and commeraderie; it binds us in collective dreams of eternal adventure, excitement and art.
And when it comes time will we abandon her like a beautiful showgirl showing her age, with a few extra pounds, and not wearing makeup?
God, I hope not. I love Las Vegas and its outrageous zaniness.

While the other candidates for Congress this year will not talk about Vegas' downsizing, or even mention Peak Oil and its global implications, I will NOT stop talking about it.
Someone has to sound the alarm. The canary is wobbling on its perch, and we can either stay and suffocate in that bad air, or get out of the mine.
Hopefully we have the energy to take the canary out with us.
It would be a terrible shame to lose it.
If our major economic engine runs out of gas, what will that do to the rest of our wonderful outrageous state?
How can we save our Vegas?
Can we keep it Las Vegas, or call it Lost Vegas?
We'd better start real soon.

Send me some money, honey, I need to fund this campaign. I need seed money to travel to our outlying communities, and even a little bit for newspaper advertising.

Votebergland for Congress.
POBox 12961,
Reno, Nevada 89510

craig@votebergland.org